The Effect of Wars on Changing the Average Family Size for the Population of Anbar Province (1977- 2018) and its Future Expectations until 2028.

Abstract

The average family size is considered one of the prominent population characteristics for the communities. The study of the changes occurring in the average family size and their causes is considered important in the limitation of the population characteristics now and in the future. The average family size represents a reflection of the demographic postulates and the political, social and economic circumstances through which the society passes. It draws a picture for the population society and the type of the main economic activities and the role of the woman in it. In light of this, the study aims at investigating the changes in the average family size for the population of Anbar Province for the period from 1977 to 2018 and the influential factors such as wars and the security issues affecting these changes. It aims, moreover, to explore the directions of these changes during the study period which have taken different trends and varied negatively and positively in place and time as well as the expectancy of their future orientation until 2028. The problem of the study is limited to the recognition of whether there is a change in the average family size in the population of Anbar and the directions of this change, and whether wars have had any effect on this change during the study period. The most important findings of the study point to an increase in the average family size in the Province occurring at the beginning of the study and during its second decade. However, it decreased by the end of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty first century till the end of the study period. Another important finding is the clear variation in the family size in the Province in the rural and urban population with a continuous superiority of the rural over the urban population. The study recommends decreasing of the family size resulting from the high fertility in order to decrease the society needs and direct part of the development revenues towards the infra-structure so that the state will be able to provide security, services and necessary resources for the population. The state should work to make a comprehensive and rapid economic development which provides work opportunities for both sexes. This will prevent making big families that are economically costly and exploit the parents’ time in bringing children up.