Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Government Spending on the Education Sector in Iraq for the Period (2004-2019)

Abstract

The Iraqi economy was greatly affected by political, security, economic and social developments, which led to fundamental changes in its various orientations. Its spending policy after the year (2004) was characterized by the expansion of the volume of government spending, which constituted a burden on the public budget and a heavy financial constraint. Most of the empirical studies and research depended on economic tools in order to choose and match the economic theory with reality, and to use quantitative measurement methods and statistical means, therefore, the researchers measured and analyzed the impact of government spending on the education sector for the period (2004- 2019), and the models were discussed according to the "Dynamic Description" assumed by the economic theory using economic measurement in an attempt to verify the validity of the hypothesis, and discuss the description of the economic variables used in the model and formulating them with mathematical equations, the parameters of the models used in this study were estimated through the use of the program (Eviews10) and the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models, and it was concluded that the results of the ARDL model are valid and reliable and enhance the accuracy of the results of the ARDL model. The model showed that the indicators of the short-term parameters of the variables were positive at significant probability values, which explains the direct effect of the variables in the short term. The economic measurement proved the relationship between government spending on education and education sector indicators, and that the coefficient of determination (R-squared) between government spending on education and the number of The students in university and technical education reached (98%), and the (F-statistic) test indicated the overall significance of the model from the statistical point of view, in addition to the fact that the model was free from (the problem of self-correlation) and (the problem of heterogeneity of variance), that is, the hypothesis was proven search.