Analysis of the Effect of Climate Variability Risk on Rice Farming Productivity Using Robust Regression

    Sukono ,Yuyun Hidayat ,Diantiny Mariam Pribadi ,Riaman
    Keywords: Rice production, climate variability risk, robust regression, OLS, CVaR. ,


    This study aims to analyze the effect of climate variability risk on rice farming productivity and terrestrial rice
    production. In this study, the data analysis method was carried out using multiple linear regression
    models, and to estimate the parameters is done using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Because of the
    productivity of rice farming and terrestrial rice production under study there are outlier data, so we need the
    right method to perform data analysis. Robust Regression is an appropriate method for dealing with
    irregularities caused by outliers. Furthermore, to measure the level of risk, it is done using Conditional Valueat-Risk (CVaR). Based on the analysis results show that wind speed, maximum temperature and
    minimum temperature have a significant effect on rice farming, while rainfall does not have a
    significant effect. The robust regression estimator has a determination value of 0.991 which means it has a
    very strong correlation. The effect of climate variables on terrestrial rice production shows that wind speed,
    minimum temperature, and rainfall have a significant effect on terrestrial rice production, while
    maximum temperature has no significant effect. The robust regression estimator in this case gives a
    determination value of 0.574 which means it is quite strong. The level of losses due to damage due to climate
    variables is estimated to reach a minimum CVaR value of 58.4459 tons/ha at the 0.96 confidence level.

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